Investors are increasingly grouping the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX under a single AI-driven boom narrative. However, that framing may be misleading.
OpenAI has confidentially filed for a US initial public offering, just days after rival Anthropic made a similar move, while investor demand for SpaceX’s highly anticipated listing is reportedly around twice the number of available shares.
This comes after a notable week on Wall Street, marking what many see as a new phase in the artificial intelligence competition.
As I was quoted by CNN, Fortune Magazine, Investing.com, The Arabian Post, IFA Magazine, Investor Ideas, IT Online, and Wealth DFM Magazine, amongst others, OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are all moving toward public capital markets as competition heats up and the cost of building future technologies continues to rise sharply.
Reports suggest OpenAI is eyeing a valuation of up to $1 trillion, while Anthropic’s latest funding round places it at around $965 billion. Meanwhile, SpaceX is reportedly targeting a record-breaking valuation of approximately $1.75 trillion.
Many investors are currently treating OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX as a single unified trade, but that view may be mistaken.
Three companies, three very different investment cases
These are three fundamentally different businesses, each with its own distinct model and a very different path to generating shareholder value.
OpenAI is the most prominent name in artificial intelligence, having brought AI tools to hundreds of millions of users and built one of the most recognisable brands in the technology sector.
However, being the most well-known company does not necessarily mean it is the best investment.
The creator of ChatGPT reported more than 900 million weekly active users earlier this year, along with around 50 million consumer subscribers.
Revenue has grown rapidly, but the company has also signalled that profitability is unlikely before the end of the decade, as it continues to invest heavily in infrastructure and model development.
OpenAI played a key role in shaping a market in which many users now expect advanced AI tools to be free or very low-cost.
While this is a major achievement from a product adoption standpoint, it can also create a more challenging starting point for monetisation.
Public markets are likely to ask more demanding questions than private investors have so far.
Strong user growth and brand recognition are impressive, but neither automatically translates into the profit margins needed to justify valuations measured in hundreds of billions, or even trillions, of dollars.
Anthropic may present a different proposition to investors.
Enterprise AI may offer a stronger revenue model
It has spent less time pursuing public visibility and more time focusing on building deep relationships with enterprise customers.
Business clients tend to behave differently from consumers. They sign larger contracts, are often less price-sensitive, and are more likely to remain long-term users once AI systems are embedded in their operations.
Anthropic’s latest funding round valued the company at $965 billion, a sharp increase from earlier valuations, and it has emerged as one of the leading providers of AI systems to large organisations.
Enterprise adoption is where some of the most durable revenue streams in AI are likely to emerge.
For those looking beyond the headlines, that dynamic warrants close attention
SpaceX operates in a completely different category.
The Elon Musk-led company is reportedly aiming to raise approximately $86 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history, with investor demand said to already exceed supply by about 2-to-1.
On traditional valuation metrics, many investors would argue that SpaceX appears expensive.
The difficulty with that view is that markets have often underestimated Elon Musk over the past two decades.
SpaceX is not just a launch company. It is also a satellite communications business, a space infrastructure provider, and increasingly a component of the broader AI ecosystem.
SpaceX is a bet on execution and ambition
Investors in SpaceX are effectively buying execution, ambition, and optionality. They are backing Elon Musk’s vision, one that many have dismissed in the past, only to later reconsider.
There is an argument that some investors may recognise the valuation is difficult to justify on conventional terms, yet still feel compelled to back Musk’s vision, because historically, betting against him has often proven costly.
Taken together, the three companies represent very different investment theses.
OpenAI is a bet on transforming extraordinary consumer adoption into sustainable profitability.
Anthropic is a bet on enterprise AI becoming deeply embedded across global business operations and generating durable long-term revenue.
SpaceX, meanwhile, is a bet on Elon Musk continuing to deliver outcomes that many still view as improbable, if not impossible.
To read my previous blog post, click here.